Something strange is happening on Wall Street. It isn’t Elon Musk, AI, or a late-night post from Donald Trump. It’s a crypto company called Circle Internet Group, and it’s making the market feel like the glory days of the dot-com bubble are back.
Circle went public on June 5. In just eleven trading sessions, its stock exploded by an almost unprecedented 675%, adding over $42 billion to its market cap. The company now trades at a valuation that puts it in the same league as tech unicorns and AI moonshots, commanding a price that has investors paying, in essence, $295 for every $1 of its earnings.
There’s just one problem. Circle doesn’t have revolutionary AI. It doesn’t build sleek consumer gadgets. Its business model is shockingly simple.
Here’s how it works: You give Circle a dollar. They give you a digital token, called USDC, worth that same dollar. They then take your actual dollar, invest it in something safe like short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and collect the interest.
You get the token. They get the profit. That’s it. That’s the entire business.
This has led critics to label Circle as little more than a glorified “money wrapper.” So why is Wall Street treating it like the next Tesla?
The answer is one word: stablecoin.
USDC is a stablecoin, a digital token pegged to a stable asset, in this case, the U.S. dollar. The idea is that for every USDC token, there’s a real dollar sitting in a reserve account. This makes it incredibly useful for crypto traders who need the speed of digital assets without the wild volatility of Bitcoin.
And now, the bulls are betting that stablecoins are about to go mainstream. The Senate just passed the “Genius Act,” landmark legislation that paves the way for banks, fintechs like PayPal, and even retailers like Walmart and Amazon to use stablecoins for payments. Suddenly, the dream of crypto becoming a real alternative to Visa or Mastercard seems within reach.
Analysts are salivating. Citi predicts the stablecoin market could hit $3.7 trillion by 2030. In that scenario, Circle, as a neutral platform not tied to any single bank, is perfectly positioned to cash in.
But there’s a catch. The business model that seems so brilliant in a high-interest-rate environment is also its greatest weakness.
“Circle’s whole business is literally glued to Fed policy,” one user wrote in a viral post on Reddit’s r/wallstreetbets. “It’s a Treasury ETF in a trench coat.”
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, Circle’s main revenue stream shrinks. There’s also nothing stopping bigger players from launching their own lookalike stablecoins, erasing Circle’s edge overnight. If everyone’s offering the same thing, Circle’s moat starts looking very shallow. And yet, Wall Street is piling in like it’s the next OpenAI. What if regulators change their tune? The entire model could be at risk. The business is remarkably fragile.
When contacted by Gizmodo, a spokesperson said the company was in a post-IPO “quiet period,” legally restricting it from making promotional statements.
For now, the hype is winning. Circle’s stock is on fire, fueled by the promise of a future where we all pay for our coffee with digital dollars. But beneath the surface, this $50 billion company doesn’t innovate or disrupt. It just holds your cash, gives you a digital receipt, and pockets the interest. And in the bizarre world of 2025 finance, that’s apparently enough to be crowned the new king of Wall Street.